Despite growing tensions between the United States and Venezuela, and after President Donald Trump declared that Venezuelan airspace should be considered “totally closed,” the Brazilian government has signaled it will only adopt a harsher stance against Washington if there is a direct military attack on Venezuelan territory.

Brazil’s Strategy of Moderation

According to sources close to President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, a stronger response will only be issued through institutional channels if Trump moves from threats to actual use of force against Venezuela or Nicolás Maduro’s regime. For now, Brazil seeks to calibrate its statements to preserve the possibility of acting as a mediator between the two countries, should they accept such a role.

Lula’s Signals

At the Celac–EU Summit, Lula strongly criticized U.S. attacks on vessels in the Caribbean and Pacific, warning that the return of military threats undermines peace in Latin America. He declared: “Democracies do not fight crime by violating international law.” In the same speech, Lula also noted that “personal projects of clinging to power undermine democracy” — a remark interpreted as an indirect reference to Maduro. However, Lula has not commented directly on Trump’s threat to aircraft flying over Venezuelan airspace.

Brazil’s Risk Assessment

Government sources believe the Pentagon is unlikely to launch a full-scale troop landing in Venezuela. Instead, any potential attacks would likely be limited and highly targeted. The prevailing view is that the U.S. strategy is to maintain pressure and test the resilience of Maduro’s inner circle and the Venezuelan Armed Forces.

Regional Reactions

Colombian President Gustavo Petro condemned Trump’s airspace closure announcement as “completely illegal” and called for an urgent meeting of the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO). He stressed that no authorization has been given by the UN Security Council or the U.S. Senate for military intervention, urging Latin America and the Caribbean to defend international law. Meanwhile, airlines suspended flights to Venezuela following FAA warnings, prompting Caracas to revoke licenses of six companies that refused to resume operations.

Implications for Brazil

• Border sensitivity: Roraima remains a critical zone for migration flows and humanitarian logistics.
• Diplomatic balance: Brazil seeks to condemn illegal interventions without legitimizing authoritarian practices, maintaining credibility.
• Potential mediation: A moderate tone preserves Brazil’s ability to propose dialogue through Celac, OAS, or bilateral channels.
• Airspace disruption: Sanctions and closures could affect commercial and humanitarian routes across the Amazon region.

Conclusion

Brazil’s cautious stance reflects a strategic calculation: avoid direct confrontation with Washington while keeping open the possibility of mediation. However, if threats escalate into military action, the government will be forced to raise its tone. The episode underscores how Latin America’s fragile regional institutions and fear of retaliation shape the diplomatic responses to U.S. pressure on Venezuela.

CTA: Want to follow Brazil’s role in the Venezuela crisis and its diplomatic balancing act? Discover other articles by Pedro Freitas and expand your geopolitical perspective.